What our traders have to say about the cryptocurrencies' market.
The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.
Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher.
The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).
A major cycle has ended, truncated, at 64,854.00 all-time high dated 14/04/2021 from March 2020 low at 3,782.13. From the top, we saw a sharp corrective structure that ended at 30,00 below our initial zone which was enough to trigger a bearish sentiment. The sharp recovery from that low was short lived and price has been heavy below 41,330. Finally, last week, we saw another decline below the 30,000 mark at 28,805.05 which could be seen in different ways. We have enough legs to the downside for a triple correction that would mean we have seen the bottom, but those structures can easily morph into larger double correction. The alternative that is our primarily view is more downside towards 25,000ish as long as below our pivot at 15/06/2021 high.
We are bearish in daily view with more correction to come but we should be cautious at current levels as the 35,220.28 high pivot has broken and potentially could see a rally now to 36,684-40,719 to threaten and challenge the 41,330.00 pivot.
What to expect this week
Bitcoin is still lingering between 28,805.00 and 41,330.00 and as we saw no progress last week, we do not expect much as long as we stay in this range. Market will resolve above 41,330 or below 28,805.00
Break above 34,262.00 on 12/07/2021 could see progress higher towards 35,189.78-36,540.11 to challenge 36,600.00 and we would see the structure of the cycle from 32,077.00 to assess further the situation in the 12h view. Unfortunately, the bearish stance in 12h, 3h and 45m prevents any mid-term positions just yet in bitcoin.
We still like to look at Ethereum as 12h sentiment has flipped to the positive side but 3h still on the bearish view.
So, to conclude here, we will be attentive to bullish sequence in the 1h view that could trigger reversal in larger time frame.