Weekly Market Report (30.08.21)


Current situation.


The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.


Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher. The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).


A major cycle has ended, truncated, at 64,854.00 all-time high dated 14/04/2021 from March 2020 low at 3,782.13. From the top, we propose either a diagonal that ended on 22/06/2021 at 28,805.00 either a double correction that ended at 30,000.00 on 19/05/2021. Either way, we are calling for a continuation lower in the weekly view to as low as 19,000 (log scale projection) or at least 24,075.00 in the current cycle from 15/06/2021 high at 41,3330.00.


We are calling a cycle from ATH completed at 28,278.00 low from 20/07/2021 as a triangle. Break above 37,332.70 last week confirms our view with 50,653.70-58,886.08 in play as our daily targets.


Bitcoin broke above 48,144.00 and confirmed our view from last week en route now to 61,393.17-72,186.83 as long as above 43,927.70.


What to expect this week.


We are neutral between 50,500.00 and 46,250.00 and we like to see a break above 50,500.00 to confirm the main view. This week, we can expect a continuation into the current congestion with price to 47,515.69-46,360.00. As long as 26/08/2021 low pivot remains intact, we maintain our view with a continuation higher.


Due to the structure from 46,250.00, we don’t like to initiate new position and we prefer to stick with our current positions.


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