Weekly Market Report (27.09)


Current Situation.


The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.


As time goes, we collect more and more data from the market. So as the cycle from December 2018 develops, we are now able to put in perspective the current price action with the cycle from inception.


On that regards, we propose that the cycle from inception to December 2013 is the first leg, as an impulsion, of a major cycle that is still developing in its third leg today. So, the first leg would be from inception to 1,240.00 high from December 2013 with a correction to 162.00 dated mid-August 2015. From there, bitcoin reached 19,804.25 at the end of December 2017 but as a 3 waves structure that implies that we are at that high still in an open cycle from August 2015 low. From 19,804.25, the king crypto went for another correction to 3,124.51 dated December 2018 as a regular triple correction. As bitcoin then made a new high above 19,804.25 at the end of the year 2020, we are now in the first leg of the third wave of the cycle from 162.00. From 3,124.51, bitcoin is showing 3 waves at 13,870.63 high from June 2019 and 3.880.59 low from early March 2020 that projected 17,727.07-43276.41. Bitcoin then reached 64,898.56, overshooting our long term and also mid-term targets from intermediate structures at 31,631.58-65,106.14. From there, either bitcoin is in a 4th wave that ended at 29,292.73 low from mid July 2021 as a triangle that we called ended few weeks ago, or in a new cycle as the third wave against 29,292.73.


So, by the end of October 2021, we expect a new all time high and from there we will analyze the structure to determine whether we have another large correction of the cycle from 3.880.59 or a direct continuation higher with 29,292.73 low in place. Our primary view, is a direct continuation higher to our target by 2024 at 489,888.


What to expect this week.


From 52,920.00 peak dated 07/09/2021, we wee a 3 waves structure which first leg was completed at 42,843.05 low followed by a connector at 48,843.20 high to project 38,766.25. We have reached 39,600.00 and despite we are short our target, we are now calling the correction ended. We note here that this correction was actually correcting cycle from 29,278.00 low to 50,500.00 high from 23/08/2021 and that this correction is proposed as a triangle.


From 39,600.00, we are still neutral in the daily view but we are keen on resuming long-term long positions again.


This week, we like to see 29,278.00 low holding and a break above 45,200.00 to confirm a 3 waves structure to the upside aiming at 46,275.00-49,735.80. Overshoot above 49,735.80 would be encouraging for a direct challenge of 52,920.00 in the current cycle, otherwise we should expect a larger correction in the 6h time frame and potentially a threat for a new low in daily that would lead us to review the corrective structure from September 2021 top.


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