What our traders have to say about the cryptocurrencies' market.
The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.
Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher. The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).
With the continuation of the fall in market last week, we have reassessed the structure and we now propose a major cycle has ended, truncated, at 64,854.00 all-time high dated 14/04/2021 from March 2020 low at 3,782.13. From the top, we now see a sharp corrective in a three waves pattern and while the correction was fast, the direct drop into the expected 41,731.58-30,808.15 is enough to end the correction.
We need to see a confirmation in the RSI but in lower time frames, we can already call the end of a cycle from the all-time high. From 30,000.00, we should now see a at least 3 waves structure to the upside or new highs.
What to expect this week
Bitcoin is on the verge of escaping the congestion we were mentioning last week and above 39,000, the door to 41,819.37-46,183.91 is now open in 3h time frame which in turn opens 43,200.00-50,739.60 where sellers should appear again in the daily view.
We are long for mid-term position in BTC from 38,500 levels and this week we expect to see a continuation higher to the daily target mentioned where we will take profit and will wait for new setup in lower time frame when we get confirmation of the continuation higher.
We will see next week how it pans out.
Below 34,750 before 41,819 would give concern that sellers are still present in lower time frames, still willing to add more bearish pressure for a possible retest of 30,000 mark.