What our traders have to say about the cryptocurrencies' market.
The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.
Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher. The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).
From the 13/03/2020 low at 3,782.13, we propose the cycle ended at 08/01/2021 41,950.00 low with the uncanny following correction to possibly end at 28/02/2021 43,000.00 low to resume the trend higher. However, at the moment, there is no confirmation and we could still see a continuation lower after the coming bounce in at least a three waves structure as the cycle from 21/02/2021 58,8352.80 high is now completed to the downside.
We maintain our view that as long as 43,000 low holds we target 81,683.99-101,100.46 area as we are calling the correction from January 2021 high cycle completed at 50,427.56. We now need to see regain in momentum to confirm that a new cycle started from 50,427.56 towards higher, failing to do so would see a correction of 09/03/2020 low at 3,782.13 in the 40,000ish area before higher.
What To Expect This Week.
Last week, bitcoin continued higher as proposed and we now have a bullish sequence that should see the price reaching 65,221.20-71,159.69 on the coming sessions.
Very short-term, a break above 61,500.00 will confirm our view to open 64,401.61-68,126.30 before a correction and then higher. The target in the daily for May/June 2021 remains between 81,683.99 as mentioned above for the lower part of the range but can be revisited to 97,955.02 depending on the structure of the coming cycle.
Failure to break above 61,500.00 this week could see pressure to 58,374.61 and a test of our short-term pivot at 55,473.00.