What our traders have to say about the cryptocurrencies' market.
The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.
Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher. The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).
From the 13/03/2020 low at 3,782.13, we propose the cycle ended at 08/01/2021 41,950.00 low with an uncanny following correction that has been dragging the price higher for few months and until now as an expanded ascending triangle took support at 28,850.00 low dated 22/01/2021 and then 43,000 low dated 28/02/2021. From there price reached a new all-time high to 61,844.00 on 13/03/2021 and we were expecting the last leg of the triangle lower in the range of 53,000-47,000 to buy for long term position. Price reached as low as 50,427.54 before bouncing. While we were calling the cycle from the latest high at 61,844.00 to this latest low, we were keen to propose the end of the overall correction from 08/01/2021 as price was reaching again a new all-time high at 64,854.00. We were then mentioning that we would need a confirmation in sentiment to break our pivot to the upside, this confirmation did not come and we have been deleveraging all our long positions on the 16/04/2021 as we were suspecting a correction.
Finally, this last correction dipped very low in the form of an impulsion that ended at 46,930.00 on 25/04/2021. While this structure is bearish, we propose a flat from 13/03/2021 high to complete our triangle. We are now fully committed to long positions and will be looking for bullish structures in coming days to re-initiate our long swings.
Our targets to the upside remain within 80,000 and 100,000 in the current cycle and will be detailed when we have more data.
What to expect this week.
Bitcoin bounced from last week’s levels as proposed and we can regain in momentum in daily in our system. Short-term, we saw weakness during the weekend towards 56,695.16-55,505.51 where buyers appeared for a bounce or to new highs above last week close. A break above 59,500.00 would open towards 62,835-66,914.46 and we like to continue buying dips for short-term swings until we reach our daily targets or until we see a reversal in the cycle from 49,930.00.
To be noted that we should see ETH continuing its push to the upside as there is no sign of weakness in our system for now.