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Weekly Market report - 03.05.21

Updated: Aug 11, 2021

What our traders have to say about the cryptocurrencies' market.

Current Situation.

The Crypto market is led by bitcoin and for us to appreciate this market as a whole, we will consider bitcoin as the reference for the general analysis to understand where this market is heading from a technical perspective.

Since inception, bitcoin reached 17,798.68 high on 17/12/2017 in a five waves structure that was calling for a continuation higher after correction. This correction from the 17/12/2017 high took one year to complete down to 3,156.26 low to start a new cycle higher. The first leg of this cycle brought bitcoin to 13,970.00 high on 26/06/2019 in a three waves pattern that bulls could not convert into a bullish structure and from there we saw a deep correction to 3,782.13 low on 09/03/2020 (that we consider as an aberration event following covid-19 breakout as we initially called for the end of the correction on 18/12/2019 low at 6,435.00. By that time, we were waiting for signals to resume swing trades that did not come until early April in our system).

From the 13/03/2020 low at 3,782.13, we propose the cycle ended at 08/01/2021 41,950.00 low with an uncanny following correction that has been dragging the price higher for few months and until now as an expanded ascending triangle took support at 28,850.00 low dated 22/01/2021 and then 43,000 low dated 28/02/2021. From there price reached a new all-time high to 61,844.00 on 13/03/2021 and we were expecting the last leg of the triangle lower in the range of 53,000-47,000 to buy for long term position. Price reached as low as 50,427.54 before bouncing. While we were calling the cycle from the latest high at 61,844.00 to this latest low, we were keen to propose the end of the overall correction from 08/01/2021 as price was reaching again a new all-time high at 64,854.00. We were then mentioning that we would need a confirmation in sentiment to break our pivot to the upside, this confirmation did not come and we have been deleveraging all our long positions on the 16/04/2021 as we were suspecting a correction.

Finally, this last correction dipped very low in the form of an impulsion that ended at 46,930.00 on 25/04/2021. While this structure is bearish, we propose a flat from 13/03/2021 high to complete our triangle. We are now fully committed to long positions and will be looking for bullish structures in coming days to re-initiate our long swings.

To be noted that coins like ETH, LUNA and SOL were giving away the end of the correction in daily view and we have already started long swings for those coins.

Our targets to the upside remain within 80,000 and 100,000 in the current cycle and will be detailed when we have more data.

What To Expect This Week.

While it is too early to call the end of the ascending and expanding triangle from 41,950.00 high dated 08/01/2021, we can now see bullish structures in the lower time frame and we should see a continuation higher following last week bounce. Whether we will see a new time high in coming sessions or weeks, we have to refer to concurrent structures in ETH and the answer is very likely positive.

However, for this week, break of 56,428.00 last week should see follow through to 61,828.94-67,698.70 for an attempt to new all-time high en route towards our daily targets.

Short-term, failure to hold 52,330.94 would see a premature end of current cycle from 46,930.00 for more pressure onto our daily pivot. We like to continue buying dips for shorter-term trade and will exit at first sign of larger correction according to our system.

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