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This market forecast is for both our Actively Managed Certificate: Criptonite Next Gems & Criptonite Mid-Cap.
We propose that the November 2013-January 2015 correction is the main connector between the first cycle from inception to November 2013 high and current cycle from January 2015 low. Within this cycle, the first leg completed at December 2017 high in a 3 waves structure. From there, we saw a 3 waves correction down to December 2018 low before trend resumed. In the current cycle from 3,148.33, we propose that the first leg ended in April 2021 high at 64,840.36 and that correction is already completed at 29,336.54 low dated July 2021.
Our view from December was denied as the 53,317.32 pivot broke down and we immediately saw the extension lower at 42,655.17 reached with a low at 42,000. This level, although touched with two massive red candles, was a buy as we saw this push lower as a correction of the cycle from 20/07/2021 at 29,790 reaching 61.80% and a correction in a classic 3 waves lower.
So, while we would have preferred a direct continuation higher, we see this correction as very bullish, especially in Ethereum. His would allow to aim for 84,746.25-94,008.25 at the end of the first quarter of during the second quarter 2022. Now, while we cannot discard a new low below 42,000 as marginal, this would degrade too much the weekly view and we would exit our long-term positions. Indeed, even though we could still be calling a triangle in the weekly view, a drop to below 30,000 would be more than likely. So, we maintain our long positions here for a mid-term play.
Find here attached, our December's monthly fact sheets.